The "National Power Supply and Demand Situation Analysis and Forecast Report for the First Quarter of 2023" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") recently released by the China Electricity Council (hereinafter referred to as the China Electricity Council) shows that as of the end of March, the country's full-caliber power generation installed capacity was 2.62 billion kilowatts. Among them, the installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation was 1.33 billion kilowatts, an increase of 15.9% year-on-year, accounting for 50.5% of the total installed capacity, exceeding half of the total installed capacity for the first time, an increase of 3 percentage points year-on-year.
The "Report" shows that in the first quarter, the national power system operated safely and stably, and the overall balance of power supply and demand effectively guaranteed the economic and social development and the electricity needs of the people for a better life.
From the perspective of electricity consumption demand, in the first quarter, the electricity consumption of the whole society in the whole country was 2.12 trillion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, which was 1.1 percentage points higher than the growth rate in the fourth quarter of the previous year, and the growth rate of electricity consumption rose steadily. In the first quarter, the total electricity consumption of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries was 1.78 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%.
From the perspective of power production and supply, in the first quarter, the country's new installed capacity of power generation was 59 million kilowatts, of which the newly added installed capacity of grid-connected solar power generation was 33.66 million kilowatts. As of the end of March 2023, the national full-caliber power generation installed capacity will be 2.62 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%.
From the perspective of national power supply and demand, in the first quarter, the national power system operated safely and stably, and the overall balance of power supply and demand was maintained. Affected by the combination of factors such as continuous dryness of incoming water, tight supply of electricity and coal, and increase in heating load, the power supply and demand situation in a few provinces such as Guizhou and Yunnan is tense. Measures such as strengthening inter-provincial surplus and shortage and implementing load-side management have ensured stable and effective power supply. order, and firmly guarded the bottom line of people's livelihood electricity safety.
"Multiple factors of power supply and demand are intertwined and superimposed, bringing uncertainty to the power supply and demand situation. Under normal weather conditions, it is estimated that the electricity consumption of the whole society in 2023 will be 9.15 trillion kwh, an increase of about 6% over 2022. "The "Report" pointed out that it is expected that in 2023, the overall national power supply and demand will be tightly balanced, and the power supply and demand will be tight during peak hours of power consumption in some regions. Among them, the power supply and demand situation in the southern region was tight in the second quarter. During the peak summer season, the power supply and demand situation in East China, Central China, and South China is tight, and the power supply and demand in North China, Northeast China, and Northwest China are basically balanced.
In order to ensure the safe and stable supply of electricity during the peak summer period, ensure the safety of large power grids and the bottom line of people's livelihood, the "Report" suggests that the power industry should make every effort to ensure the safe and stable supply of power fuel during the peak summer period; speed up the construction of key power grid projects, Improve the adjustment and support capabilities of the power system; give full play to the important role of market mechanisms in ensuring power supply security.
"It is necessary to maintain a stable supply of coal to balance market supply and demand, strengthen the signing and performance of medium and long-term contracts for thermal coal, further play the role of ballast stone in medium and long-term contracts, and increase the supervision of the market price of thermal coal." The "Report" clearly stated that the promotion of new power sources Project construction, tapping the potential of existing generating units; speeding up grid reinforcement before summer and grid connection projects of new power plants; strengthening power load management and tapping demand-side resources. Improve the inter-provincial and inter-regional power trading mechanism, give full play to the role of the large power grid platform, improve the market-based electricity price formation mechanism, and strengthen the supervision of medium and long-term power transactions.